Coca-Cola Hellenic (CCH.L): Revisiting Russia exposure - what's in the price?

Update on Russia: CCH's share price was -8% on Friday due to heightened investor concerns around its Russian operations in light of the Russian authorities placing Nestle's assets in the country under temporary external administration. We estimate CCH Russia accounts for 14%/25% of 2026 net sales/EBIT, however the business has just over EUR1bn cash trapped in the country in H1 generating interest income, which leads to overall 34% net profit exposure. Following the pending acquisition of CCBA, we estimate the Russia exposure would be diluted to 20% EBIT and 30% net profit. Although we acknowledge there is some heightened level of risk on CCH's Russian assets, we highlight two important differences relative to Nestle's operations: 1) CCH mainly sells local Russian brands under a local subsidiary named Multon, whereas Nestle's operations are mostly made up of Western brands;