Global Metals Weekly: Gold's shifting macro correlations

BofA's Global Metals Weekly notes that gold has come under pressure in recent weeks even as investors increased their ETF holdings; while ETF AUMs have risen, actual purchases have been lacklustre, and key participants including central banks, China and India have in aggregate slowed gold buying YoY YTD (total -16.6% YoY). China's domestic market remains resilient with imports hitting all-time highs in 2Q26, while India's demand is weak with domestic prices at a discount due to higher import duties. Participants at last week's LBMA gold conference in Sorrento also confirmed soft physical markets, but Switzerland's gold imports have not been exceptionally high, so BofA sees no wholesale reassessment of gold. On the macro side, gold's correlations with macro variables shifted repeatedly this year (from equity/oil-linked to a yields/dollar/risk-on configuration);