3Q’26 previews – operationally challenged, risk for 2026 copper guidance

3Q’26 mining results season kicks off on 14th Oct with RIO reporting its results. Citi expects calendar 3Q to be operationally challenged, which could drive fine tuning of full year 2026 guidance across the coverage. The most risk is seen to full year 2026 copper production guidance, with the fatality at Escondida and labour strike at Centinela being negative catalysts, while Chilean production for the rest of the stocks is also running lower versus guidance set at the beginning of the year. Citi also flags that with energy complex prices (especially diesel) moving higher, overall cost guidance across the sector is likely to be revised higher. However, commodity pricing momentum is likely to offset the operational/cost headwinds, keeping the earnings momentum going for the sector, especially for copper names. GLEN is Citi’s top pick. Estimates have been updated with latest commodity price forecasts, with ratings unchanged;