摩根士丹利发布宁德时代（300750.SZ）三季度业绩点评，核心问题是单位毛利下探是否已成为新常态。公司三季度业绩低于预期，主因单位毛利环比下滑：管理层解释为产品结构不利、低毛利产品占比提升，同时增值税退税下调和国内消费税政策带来增量成本。报告认为业绩公布后市场对盈利预测将出现明显下修，当前关键争议在于单位毛利是否已进入新的常态水平，还是随产品结构改善可回升至上半年水平。报告认为宁德时代的品质溢价依然稳固，但储能市场竞争加剧、国内市场相对宽松的品质要求削弱了品质优势的变现能力，对单位毛利构成压力；若增量税负无法向客户传导，则有望通过持续降本逐步消化。报告维持「增持」评级及首选股定位，预计三季度毛利触底后有所修复，但修复幅度将更多取决于产品结构与储能市场的竞争强度。
CATL's 3Q earnings came in below our estimate, primarily reflecting unit margin compression. Management attributed the decline in margin to 1) an unfavorable product mix, with higher contribution from lower-margin products, and 2) the VAT rebate reduction and domestic consumption tax. We expect meaningful earnings estimate revisions by consensus following the results. We think the key debate now is whether the current per-wh unit margin is the new normal, or if unit profitability can recover toward 1H levels as the product mix improves. Although we believe CATL's quality premium remains intact, emerging price competition in the ESS market could weigh on unit margins as relatively less stringent quality requirements in the domestic market reduce the monetization of its quality advantage. Meanwhile, the incremental tax burden, if not passed through to customers, should be gradually absorbed by ongoing cost reductions, providing a natural offset over time. As such, we expect some recovery