近几日经霍尔木兹海峡的运输量回升，一定程度上缓解了市场对短期原油供应的担忧并影响油价。报告估计，尽管延布（Yanbu）出口中断，过去两天经霍尔木兹海峡的原油及成品油出口加上改道运输量合计最高达14Mb/d；周度总流量维持在12Mb/d，远低于冲突前逾20Mb/d的水平，增量主要来自霍尔木兹海峡的"暗航"。海湾地区（除伊朗外）原油装船量近两日升至逾10Mb/d，周度8.1Mb/d，接近冲突以来最高，8月均值仅5.5Mb/d，主要由沙特和伊拉克出口增加推动；伊朗仍无新的原油装船。延布因管道遇袭后无装船。有报道称沙特阿美将在未来数周提高经阿曼的出口量，流向亚洲。美国总统特朗普称即将决定是否重启对伊朗的攻击，并拟于下周二会见海合会领导人；海峡内船舶遇袭事件据报道仍在持续。
A pick-up in flows via the Strait of Hormuz in recent days has eased some of the concerns around near-term crude supply, impacting prices. More reports indicate that Aramco will raise exports from Oman over the next few weeks. Flows will reportedly be going to Asia. US President Donald Trump said that he is nearing a decision over whether to restart attacks on Iran. He is due to meet GCC leaders next Tuesday. Meanwhile attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly continued. We estimate total crude oil and oil product exports via Hormuz plus volumes diverted to the bypass routes were up to 14Mb/d in the past couple of days, despite the drop in Yanbu. Total flows remain at 12Mb/d on a weekly basis, vs. the >20Mb/d pre-conflict. The increase continues to be driven by dark transits via Hormuz. Gulf crude loadings ex-Iran rose to >10Mb/d over the past 2 days; there is still no fresh Iranian crude loading. Yanbu loadings remain absent since the pipeline attack.