Pork: 3Q26 preview: Ongoing OP weakness with continued pressure from China & International business

Following the downward earnings revision from the US business post the guidance cut earlier in Sep, we continue to expect weakness in OP for WH Group in 3Q26, with a close to 30s % yoy decline (vs -11% yoy in 2Q26), driven by continued earnings pressure across regions. For the China business (Shuanghui), we expect WH Group China OP to decline yoy in 3Q26 on softer packaged meat unit profits and hog production losses, with packaged meats volume broadly flat but unit profits lower, and hog production likely to remain loss-making. For the International business, our US team forecasts a steep yoy decline in 3Q26 OP, while in Europe we continue to expect an OP loss as hog-price pressure persists. Looking into 4Q26, we expect China OP to return to low-single-digit yoy growth, supported by a modest recovery in the packaged meats business and narrowing hog production losses;