MINISO Group (9896.HK): 3Q26: Better-than-expected GMV Growth in China While Overseas In Line; 4Q26 Uncertainty Remains

MINISO reported accelerating GMV growth in MINISO Chinese mainland, +25-30% yoy in 3Q26 vs. +21% yoy in 1H26, with SSSG at +HSD yoy (vs. +MSD yoy in 1H26), which came in better than expected. MINISO overseas was largely in-line, which we expect at +LSD yoy in 3Q26 and it may still take time to sort out. We still see uncertainty in 4Q26 given high base in China and high season weighting in overseas. Maintain Neutral. Our target price is HK$22.2, based on DCF with a WACC of 11.4% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. Proprietary IP YOYO has achieved GMV of >Rmb1bn in 9M26 and expanded into 53 countries and regions globally since launch in June 2025. For 2H26 guidance, group revenue is expected at +HSD, with adjusted NP (ex-F/X) down HSD yoy and a 3-4ppt decline in net margin.