报告指出，亚洲消费复苏正从更多经济体扩散，非科技出口与资本开支动能维持强劲，带动劳动力市场逐步改善并推动消费增长。亚洲（除中国外）零售销售同比增长9.2%，创40个月新高；二季度名义私人消费增速升至7.6%，为11个季度高点。复苏由韩国、台湾、印度、马来西亚和日本领跑，其中韩国、台湾电子业薪资增速分别达20%和17%，印度城市薪资增速升至7.7%的9个季度新高，日本实际薪资自2026年2月起转正。亚洲家庭债务占GDP比重低于疫情前水平，家庭贷款增速开始回升，为加杠杆提供空间。但本轮周期由资本开支驱动，消费将跟随而非领先资本开支。中国是例外，地产价格下跌与财政顺周期收紧导致家庭去杠杆，出口改善的支撑可能不足以提振消费，中国三季度GDP增速预计为4.3%-4.4%。主要风险是油价升至每桶130-150美元，可能加大国内燃油价格传导，削弱购买力。
We are seeing signs that the recovery in consumption is broadening out to more economies. Non-tech exports and capex momentum are staying strong, leading to gradual improvement in labour market conditions and recovery in consumption growth. The recovery is broadening, led by Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia and Japan. Retail sales for Asia ex China are now at a 40-month high of 9.2%Y, and Asia ex China nominal private consumption growth accelerated to a 7.6%Y in 2Q, an 11-quarter high. Health of household balance sheets – debt to GDP in Asia is lower than pre-covid level – is providing room for leveraging up. But the capex-driven nature of the cycle means consumption will follow, not lead capex. China's consumption is an exception: positive support from exports is being offset by property price declines driven by consumer deleveraging and fiscal tightening. Key risk is if oil prices rise to US$130-150/bbl, which would lead to greater pass-through to domestic fuel prices, dampening purcha