新西兰2026年二季度GDP环比增长0.2%，基本符合高盛预期（GSe +0.3%），高于彭博一致预期（+0.1%）与新西兰联储9月货币政策声明预测（0.0%）；同比增长回升至2.6%，部分反映前期季度数据上修，一季度增速上修10个基点至0.9%。生产法GDP显示16个行业中11个产出扩张，建筑业环比+2.7%为2023年以来最强季度表现，公共管理（+2.0%）与信息媒体（+1.7%）亦增长，而零售（-1.0%）、娱乐（-0.8%）与运输（-1.7%）等消费相关行业明显走弱，与油价高企压制居民实际收入有关。支出法GDP增长更强，环比+0.4%、同比+3.0%，净出口贡献110个基点抵消了家庭消费零增长与库存下降的拖累，住宅投资环比+4.4%。收入方面名义GDP环比+0.6%，GDP平减指数与家庭消费平减指数分别上升0.1%和0.8%。
Bottom line: New Zealand GDP growth slowed to 0.2%qoq in 2Q2026, broadly in line with our expectations but above the RBNZ's September MPS forecast (GSe: +0.3%qoq; BBG: +0.1%qoq; RBNZ: 0.0%qoq). Year-over-year growth picked up to 2.6%yoy, in part reflecting an upward revision to prior quarters, with 1Q2026 growth reported 10bp higher at 0.9%qoq. The composition of production GDP showed an encouraging pick-up in construction activity, which recorded its largest quarterly pace of growth since 2023, while higher oil prices weighed on the consumer evident in the weakness across retail and recreation industries. Overall, 11 out of the 16 industries recorded an expansion in output. On the expenditure side, growth was a little stronger at 0.4%qoq, with strength in net exports offsetting weakness in household consumption. While today's data were stronger than the RBNZ's forecast, the composition of the release suggests some areas of the economy remain soft. We think it is more likely the RBNZ d