Spanish Grids: Results previews: steady trends. Election impacts

We do not expect any major surprises from Enagas' and Redeia's 9M results, and we expect each company to reiterate its FY guidance. Neither company is planning a conference call. For Enagas, we forecast a 4% decline in 9M EBITDA to E484m and an 11% drop in net profit to E184m, with net debt of E2.98bn. For Redeia, we forecast a 6% increase in 9M EBITDA to E1003m and a 6% increase in net income to E412m, with net debt of E5.6bn. Looking past the results, the 29 November Spanish election could be impactful in different ways. For Enagas, hydrogen policy under a new government is key: continued support would allow its strategy to proceed, while a less supportive policy may lead it to reconsider its strategy and potentially return to larger dividend payouts. For Redeia, the election presents scope for delays in the National Infrastructure Plan, particularly under a change in government, which could push the timing of its CMD from H1 2027 to H2 2027. We rate Enagas Hold with a EUR16.50 targe