US Weekly Prospects

J.P. Morgan US Weekly Prospects. The minutes to the September FOMC meeting showed a unanimous hike but with differing rationales; "most" participants saw another move as likely appropriate by year-end, as signaled by the dot plot. Fed speakers Waller, Williams and Jefferson pushed back on a late-October hike, and market odds of an October move fell below 20% after peaking near 70% early last week; J.P. Morgan continues to look for the next hike at the December FOMC meeting. Next week's September CPI is expected at a moderate 0.18%m/m (2.4%oya) core. A special focus argues that unusually high diesel and jet fuel prices, which rose far more than crude oil, imply an additional ~0.2% lift to core PCE beyond the crude-oil-based model. A balance-sheet analysis of the falling US saving rate shows households have not materially slowed asset accumulation;