高盛石油分析团队对美国可能限制柴油出口的影响进行模型测算，认为这是很可能但非基准情景的情形。美国全国平均零售柴油价格已升至6.5美元/加仑，柴油净出口由2025年的110万桶/日升至近几个月约160万桶/日；报告假设自2026年10月初起实施为期至少90天（甚至到12月）的柴油出口禁令，并据此得出五点结论：一是禁令初期因库存累积将对美国柴油价格形成温和下行压力，在储油空间仍可用时，每执行一周约压低美国零售柴油价格0.25美元/加仑，接近当前6.5美元/加仑的4%；二是禁令持续越久干扰越大，柴油、汽油与航空煤油基本同产，一旦柴油库存接近存储上限（约9-10周填满），柴油价格下行压力加剧、炼油利润被压缩并促使炼厂减产，库存填满后每执行一周将推高美国零售汽油价格约0.3美元/加仑；
We model the effects on diesel and gasoline prices from potential restrictions on US diesel exports—a very plausible scenario, though not our base case—and draw five conclusions. First, a diesel export ban would initially likely put moderate downward pressure on US diesel prices as inventories build. We estimate that, initially while storage remains available, each week of a US diesel export ban would be associated with $0.25/gallon of downward pressure on average US retail diesel prices, or just under 4% of the current $6.5/gallon. Second, the longer a diesel export ban lasts, the more disruptive it would likely be by putting upward pressure on gasoline prices because diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are largely produced together. As US diesel stocks near storage limits, downward pressure on diesel prices would intensify, compressing US refining margins, and likely incentivize US refiners to reduce output. We estimate that, once diesel storage is full, each week of a US diesel export ba