Bilibili (BILI US & 9626 HK) 3Q26 result preview

J.P. Morgan previews Bilibili's 3Q26 results, expecting generally in-line results with revenue up 7% YoY (1% below consensus) on ads revenue +20% YoY and VAS +4% YoY driven mainly by membership, while online game revenue falls 8% YoY on a high base from Sanmou but is flat QoQ; adjusted operating profit is expected up 19% YoY on operating leverage. Due to challenging eCommerce ads demand, 4Q26E/2026E ads growth is cut by 2%/1% to 15%/22% YoY, putting 4Q26E revenue 2% below Bloomberg consensus. Lumi Master's iOS ranking has slipped to No.74, but overall cash grossing (including iOS/Android/mini program) remains healthy and should drive game revenue back to +1% YoY in 4Q26E. The next key launch, Sanwang, expected in late December 2026, should lift game revenue 18%/22% in 1Q27E/2027E. 2027E EPS is cut 5%, and the price target is lowered to US$21/HK$163 (from US$22/HK$170) on an unchanged 16x 2027E P/E, maintaining Overweight;