Pembina Pipeline Corp (PPL.TO): Marketing Propels 3Q EBITDA Ahead; Lower End of Guide Lifted; Await Color on Pacific Link & Greenlight

Pembina reported 3Q adjusted EBITDA of $1,128mm, ahead of the $1,028mm/$1,044mm JPMorgan estimate and Street median. Marketing & New Ventures drove the beat at $167mm, $75mm above our estimate, on stronger NGL margins from West Coast propane export premiums and higher realized gains on crude oil-based derivatives, partly offset by higher realized losses on NGL-based derivatives. Facilities EBITDA of $400mm and Pipelines EBITDA of $606mm also came in slightly above our forecasts. Pembina raised the low end of its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $4.45-4.55bn from $4.35-4.55bn and sees the upper end of the range based on the current commodity price outlook. Key 4Q tailwinds include seasonal WCSB NGL frac spread strength with roughly 75% of North American frac spread exposure hedged, higher Alliance Pipeline contributions, higher Cochin interruptible volumes, and a larger PGI contribution from new assets entering service and a non-recurring revenue recognition item. On projects, Pacific L