受法国财政赤字担忧推动，法国国债与德国国债利差扩大至近十年高位，并出现向意大利等其他市场扩散的迹象，市场对欧元区是否再度爆发债务危机的关注升温。报告将当前形势与2011—2015年欧债危机作系统对比。相似之处在于：多国财政失衡依然严重，叠加国防、老龄化、医疗与气候支出压力，利率处于高位且趋升，法国、比利时、奥地利、芬兰等国债务动态令人担忧；银行持有本国国债及非银机构杠杆构成金融脆弱性，政治碎片化加大财政整顿难度。不同之处在于：实际与名义增长明显更强，家庭财务状况更稳健，外部失衡与对外融资依赖下降，南欧银行资本、资产质量与盈利改善，ESM、共同债券发行与欧洲央行工具强化了制度架构。结论是市场无序升级与实体经济传染风险明显低于当年，但法国等国的根本性财政挑战较当年更为艰巨，欧元区主权风险问题仍未解决，仍需可信的财政整顿。
European sovereign risk is back in focus as fiscal concerns have pushed French spreads to decade highs and tentative spillovers have emerged in other markets, including Italy. With this raising the question of whether the Euro area could face a renewed debt crisis, we compare today's conditions with the 2011-15 episode. We see several similarities. Fiscal imbalances are elevated (with further spending pressures from defence and ageing), interest rates are high and rising, and debt dynamics look concerning in several countries (including France, Belgium, Austria and Finland). Financial-market vulnerabilities also persist through sovereign exposures and non-bank leverage, while greater political fragmentation complicates the fiscal adjustment required. But today's starting point is stronger in several important respects. Real and nominal growth are materially higher, household finances are more robust, external imbalances and reliance on foreign financing are smaller, and banks—especiall