Chemicals & Ingredients 3Q26 preview: As much about the vibes as the numbers

Beats and guidance raises may not lead to share price performance this earnings season. While Ingredients are facing a high bar after Givaudan's print, a slight guidance adjustment from EBITDA 26E €1.47bn+ to ~€1.47bn may be enough for Akzo. But in several cases other factors loom as large as the numbers, such as M&A for Linde (Lincare), BASF, Clariant, and Syensqo, or the ag cycle for CF Industries and BASF. We see room for tactical longs at Air Products and Akzo and tactical shorts at Solvay and Clariant. For Ingredients, the bar has been set extremely high for DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR) and Symrise following Givaudan's monster 3Q print of 8.6% OSG, driven by >30% OSG in Fine Fragrances. This leaves little room to pursue tactical longs here, but fragrance dynamics are likely somewhat stronger than expected so we would avoid being negatively positioned. In Industrial gases, the bar does not feel nearly as high, given that volume trends appear to have eased over the summer, albeit there is