日本食品饮料：日元升值前景下的赢家与输家

With the BoJ looking increasingly likely to raise interest rates at tomorrow's meeting, we assess the winners and losers from further potential JPY appreciation in this note. Kikkoman is likely to be most negatively impacted by the translational impact of JPY appreciation, while Nissin and Asahi look best placed to benefit from FX related procurement tailwinds 6-9 months down the line. The yen has appreciated by approximately 5% since late July, and if the trend continues, we expect investors to focus initially on translational FX impacts, where a stronger yen reduces the reported value of overseas earnings when translated into yen. Within our coverage, Kikkoman and Toyo Suisan have the highest U.S. dollar revenue exposure and are therefore most vulnerable to earnings downgrades from adverse translational effects. By contrast, Asahi has limited U.S. exposure, while Ajinomoto and Nissin generate a relatively smaller proportion of earnings overseas, making their earnings profiles relativ