野村发布腾讯控股（0700.HK）三季度前瞻报告。预计3Q26F收入基本符合预期，但受持续加码AI投资影响，非国际财务报告准则经营利润同比小幅下滑，低于市场一致预期，经营利润率同比收窄。分业务看，游戏收入保持个位数增长，其中国内游戏稳健、海外游戏因去年同期高基数而小幅下降；广告收入在短视频广告带动下实现较快增长；金融科技增速放缓，反映零售消费疲弱；云业务收入增速则明显加快，主要受益于国内AI基础设施需求。资本开支同比大幅上升。报告认为三季度表现不及往年稳健，但放缓是暂时性的，源于当前AI投资周期和游戏高基数；腾讯尚未推出可与字节跳动、阿里比肩的AI产品，即将推出的微信智能体有望助其确立在AI市场的位置。由于利润率承压及游戏增长略缓，下调FY26/27F非国际准则每股盈利预测，维持"买入"评级，但下调基于分部估值的目标价。
Nomura's 3Q26F preview on Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) expects largely in-line revenue but weaker operating profit amid continued AI investment, with the non-IFRS operating margin contracting year on year and coming in below consensus. Gaming revenue grows in the single digits, with solid domestic growth offset by an overseas decline against a tough comparison base; advertising grows faster on robust short-video advertising; fintech slows as subdued retail consumption weighs on payments; and cloud revenue accelerates on strong AI infrastructure demand in China. Capex rises sharply. Nomura views the slowdown as temporary, reflecting the AI investment cycle and a high gaming base, and notes Tencent has yet to launch an AI product as compelling as ByteDance's or Alibaba's, though the upcoming WeChat agent could help establish its position. FY26/27F non-IFRS EPS estimates are trimmed on margin pressure and slower gaming growth; Buy is maintained with a lower SOTP-based target price.