本报告为野村全球市场研究部美国宏观每日评论，回顾并展望美国经济数据与联储官员表态。回顾部分：波士顿联储主席Collins维持鹰派立场，认为通胀显著高于2%的可能性上升，但预计紧缩节奏温和，或支持年内仅再加息一次；里士满联储主席Barkin担忧通胀黏性，认为不宜被动等待冲击消退，并援引地区调查指出企业提价快于疫情前，其表态显示其不太可能属于年内不再加息的阵营。数据方面，费城联储9月非制造业活动指数由-10.6降至-22.0，但新订单与未完成订单改善，全职就业指数升至2022年6月以来最高，资本开支预期创多年新高，物价压力仍高；里士满联储制造业活动走弱，就业指数升至2025年2月以来最高，服务业收入指数由-8回升至0。ADP数据显示截至9月5日四周私营就业周均增长加快至2万，为6月中以来最高。展望部分：预计9月初值标普制造业与服务业PMI均小幅回落，价格指数或因地缘紧张维持高位，交付时间延长。
This US Daily Commentary reviews recent Fed speak and regional survey data and previews upcoming indicators. Boston Fed President Collins maintained her hawkish stance, seeing "an increased likelihood of future scenarios in which inflation remains notably above 2 percent," though her anticipated pace of tightening appears moderate, suggesting she may favor only one more rate hike this year. Richmond Fed President Barkin expressed concerns about inflation risks and sticky inflation, pushing back against simply waiting for inflationary shocks to pass, and cited regional surveys showing businesses raising prices faster than before the pandemic; his stance suggests he is unlikely to be among participants expecting no additional rate hikes this year. On data: the Philly Fed nonmanufacturing general activity index fell to -22.0 in September from -10.6, though new orders and unfilled orders improved while remaining contractionary;