HelloFresh (HFGG.DE): Margin recovery in focus for Q4 with January as the next growth test

Following the Q3 results, management highlighted that the company is prioritizing a recovery in the contribution margin in Q4, with some improvement already evident towards the end of Q3. In the near-term, the key question is whether the company can restore margins to a level that supports renewed marketing investment ahead of the January peak period, as management maintains that any step-up in marketing will depend on returns. On the FY26 outlook, management sees revenue trending towards the middle of the guidance while AEBITDA is expected at the lower half of the range (in-line with current consensus) despite the Q3 beat. Although a marketing re-acceleration in January could act as an encouraging signal, we reiterate our view that a sustained share re-rating will require more concrete evidence that revenues have stabilized and as such we remain on the sidelines. We maintain our Neutral stance on the name, arguing that the shares are unlikely to re-rate from current depressed valuatio