摩根大通发布LVMH（LVMH.PA）三季度业绩点评。LVMH 2026年第三季度销售额基本符合预期，有机增长+1%（同比+1%），但收入结构料将拖累股价及整个奢侈品板块。核心的时装与皮具部门（F&LG）弱于预期，撇除汇率后下滑5%（摩根大通预期-2%、市场预期-3%至-4%），其中路易威登（LV）表现略低于部门平均，主因当季中国消费再度明显下台阶（尽管季末有所改善）。腕表与珠宝同样环比放缓，录得+6%（预期+7%），仍受中国可选消费转弱、美国放缓及蒂芙尼高基数拖累。其他部门表现较佳：精品零售有机增长+8%，葡萄酒与烈酒+6%，香水化妆品+1%。基于F&LG复苏更慢、品牌结构转差（LV为最高利润率品牌），摩根大通下调EBIT预测1%-2%；并因法国税率结构性上升（现假设30%）下调EPS预测6%-7%，将26财年第四季度F&LG预测调整为撇除汇率后-2.5%、27财年+1%。
Our Take: LVMH Q3 26 sales were broadly in line with expectations, +1% organic (JPMe +1%) and +1% reported. However, the mix will likely weigh on the LVMH share price, and the wider sector, first thing this morning. In fact, the all-important F&LG came in softer than expected, down 5% ex-FX (JPMe: -2% and we think market expectations -3%/-4%), including LV tracking a tad below the division. Excluding a one-off logistics issue impacting LV, the division slowed vs Q2 by c. 500bps, mainly due to another step down of Chinese consumption in the quarter, albeit with improving exit rates. W&J also showed a similar slowdown sequentially, still performing well at +6% (JPMe +7%), but also not immune from the broader sector deceleration. The other divisions performed better, with notably a solid performance at W&S (+6% organic vs JPMe +1%) and Selective Retailing (+8% organic vs JPMe +5%). We trimmed our EBIT forecasts by 1-2% (and EPS by 6-7% on higher tax), to account for slower recovery at F&L