Lumentum（LITE.US）、Marvell（MRVL.US）：关于Marvell与Lumentum潜在交易报道的思考

Bloomberg reported after the market close on Wednesday that Marvell may be nearing a deal to acquire Lumentum, with a final agreement not yet reached but a transaction possible as early as next week; given LITE's $90bn+ market cap, a consummated deal could rank among the 10 largest tech deals ever. From LITE's perspective, an acquisition would validate its messaging on optics' growing role in AI and its competitive advantages into CPO; the company is sold out through 2028 and gross margins are expected to be up 2000+ bps over the last eight quarters. However, LITE trades at 30x LTM revenue, 15x NTM revenue and 40x NTM P/E, well above historical and comparable acquisitions, so any premium would exceed any prior optical deal. From MRVL's perspective, combining its optical DSP and connectivity leadership with Lumentum's lasers and photonics could capture more content per optical link and hedge DSP content erosion, but hurdles include channel conflict with DSP customers that compete direct