野村美国宏观研究：9月核心CPI环比意外加速至0.335%（高于野村预期的0.227%及市场共识0.2%），主要受业主等价租金（OER）及部分商品分项意外走强推动。OER环比上涨0.350%，为2025年3月以来最大月度涨幅，中西部小城市与南部部分大城市租金出现特异性跳升。核心商品CPI环比上涨0.25%，高于野村预期的-0.018%，玩具（+4.2%）、服装（+0.3%）及半导体相关商品（电脑及外设、智能家居设备+1.4%、视频设备+4.5%、音频设备+1.4%）价格走强，显示AI建设带来的通胀压力。据此，野村将9月核心PCE通胀环比预测从CPI公布前的0.202%上调至0.306%，同比预计由8月的3.01%升至3.08%。
Core CPI inflation surprised to the upside, accelerating to 0.335% m-o-m in September from 0.290% in August (Nomura: 0.227%, Consensus: 0.2%). The unexpected strength in owners' equivalent rent (OER) and certain goods components led us to revise up our forecast for September core PCE inflation to 0.306% m-o-m from our pre-CPI estimate of 0.202%. Among core CPI goods components which have larger weights in core PCE prices than in core CPI, prescription drug prices declined, but prices for toys and newspapers & magazines rose strongly. Moreover, components with high exposure to semiconductors (e.g., computers and possibly toys) rose in September, suggesting inflationary pressures induced by the ongoing AI buildout. If our forecast materializes, a 0.3% m-o-m core PCE inflation should keep October a live meeting. However, given recent Fedspeak, the proximity to the midterms, and the relatively benign readings of core PCE inflation in June-August, we continue to expect the Fed will remain o