摩根大通指出,美国联合租赁(URI)2026年第三季度业绩超预期,租赁收入同比增长18%,并将2026财年租赁设备资本开支指引由48.5亿-52.5亿美元上调至52亿-55亿美元,上调约6%,为年内第二次上调;其自有设备租赁收入增长13%,机队规模增长8%、生产率提升7%,能源、制造、基建和数据中心项目需求普遍改善。摩根大通预计URI 2027年净资本开支增长20%以上,这对约35%-40%收入来自美国、且客户以租赁商为主的浙江鼎力构成积极的需求映射。浙江鼎力将于10月29日发布三季报,预计净利润同比增长约5%,收入增长约20%,但汇兑损失约8000万元、毛利率约32%以及美国关税及税费负担由79%升至96%形成压力。维持“增持”评级,目标价65元,目标价基于14倍2027年预期市盈率。
J.P. Morgan views United Rentals' second capex raise in 2026 as validating Zhejiang Dingli's US upside. URI reported a strong 3Q26 beat, with rental revenue up 18% Y/Y, and raised FY26 gross rental capex guidance to US$5.2bn-5.5bn from US$4.85bn-5.25bn, a roughly 6% increase after an earlier ~10% raise in 1H26. URI's owned equipment rental revenue rose 13% Y/Y, driven by 8% average fleet growth and 7% fleet productivity, while project demand broadened across energy, manufacturing, infrastructure and data centers. J.P. Morgan's machinery team expects URI's 2027 net capex to grow more than 20%, which should support purchasing appetite from large rental customers and benefit Dingli, given that the US accounts for about 35%-40% of its revenue. For Dingli's 3Q26 results due October 29, J.P. Morgan estimates profit growth of about 5% Y/Y despite revenue growth of about 20%, reflecting an FX loss of about Rmb80mn, a gross margin of about 32% and a higher US tariff and duty burden of about 96%