本报告为摩根士丹利《石油手册》系列专题，聚焦柴油市场与炼油厂检修节奏。报告指出，受俄罗斯炼厂遭无人机袭击以及中东霍尔木兹海峡相关扰动影响，俄罗斯与中东炼厂开工率明显低于上年同期，相当于削减了约一成海运成品油供应，使成品油市场（尤其是柴油）维持紧张。目前计划内检修量偏低，部分源于炼厂为获取高利润而推迟检修，但推迟的检修无法无限延后，将在2026年四季度至2027年二季度集中释放，届时计划内检修的环比增幅将远高于历史正常水平。叠加地缘冲突短期内难以解决，报告预计全球炼厂开工的恢复将慢于市场一致预期，成品油市场偏紧格局可能延续至2027年年中。报告以西北欧柴油市场为重点，通过供需模型分析认为，欧洲柴油库存将继续去化，ICE柴油近远月价差（尤其是2027年中附近）存在补涨空间。
This Global Idea note from The Oil Manual series examines the diesel market and the outlook for refinery maintenance. Refinery runs in Russia and the Middle East are tracking roughly 3 mb/d lower year-on-year, equal to about 10% of seaborne supply, keeping refined product markets tight. This is partly offset by low planned outages today, but planned maintenance is on track to rise by around 3.4 mb/d between 4Q26 and 2Q27, some 2.5x the norm, as deferred work re-appears. With geopolitical disruptions in Russia and the Middle East unresolved, the recovery in global runs is likely to come in below consensus by 2Q27. The team models the Northwest Europe diesel market, concluding that ICE gasoil will need to stay elevated to erode demand and/or turn exports into net imports, with inventories likely to trend lower. Upside in diesel flat price is largely realised, but forward curves decline too fast, leaving opportunities in deferred gasoil time spreads around mid-2027. The note also raises d