摩根士丹利重申对大中华区科技硬件ABF载板行业的乐观看法，认为新增产能公告并不会推翻其看多观点：AI需求增长与载板复杂度提升将令2027年起市场持续供不应求，支撑价格与利润率进一步扩张，故上调欣兴电子（Unimicron，3037.TW）与南亚电路板（NYPCB，8046.TW）的盈利预测与目标价，并均维持「增持」评级。供应商虽加大投资，但多个新项目要至2028年底至2030年甚至更晚才投产，更新后的供需模型显示2027、2028年需求分别超过供给9.3%和13.7%（此前为6.2%和9.4%），供不应求将延续至2030年。预计2027年ABF载板价格涨幅超过25%，且供应紧张而非原材料成本传导将成为主导驱动，2028年价格继续上行。
New capacity announcements do not overturn our bullish view. AI demand and increasing substrate complexity should keep the market undersupplied from 2027, supporting further pricing and margin expansion. We raise earnings estimates and price targets for Unimicron and NYPCB and reiterate OW on both. More capacity, but limited near-term relief: Suppliers are stepping up investment, but several newly announced projects are not scheduled to ramp until late 2028-30 or beyond. Our updated supply-demand model continues to indicate undersupply from 2027 through 2030, with tighter supply in CY27-28, which should only be more favorable to pricing. CY27 pricing should accelerate, amid tighter supply-demand in CY27-28, but visibility on the magnitude remains limited: We see ABF substrate prices rising 25%+ in CY27, below buy-side expectations of ~50%. Our supply/demand outlook points to undersupply next year, with larger substrates, higher layer counts, and greater manufacturing complexity further