Guotai Haitong Securities - H (2611.HK): New China Life accumulation supports share price performance, but 3Q results remain key to watch

GTHT-H rose 3% on 12 October and is down 3% since 31 August, outperforming H-share broker peers by 2ppt and 6ppt, respectively. Recent stake accumulation by New China Life has likely been an important driver of GTHT-H's recent share price outperformance. We estimate that New China Life's purchases accounted for c.34% of GTHT-H trading volume during 3-29 September and believe scope remains for the insurer to increase its stake further, from 4.04% currently toward the 5% regulatory threshold. This could continue to provide technical support to GTHT-H in the near term. However, we are cautious on GTHT's upcoming 3Q26 results, as its relatively high exposure to equity investments could leave its investment income under greater pressure than peers' amid recent market weakness. Thus, while flow-driven support may sustain near-term outperformance, earnings-related concerns could become a greater focus post-results. We have an OW rating on GTHT-H with a Jun-27 PT of HK$18.00. Downside risks in