Goldwind-H (2208.HK): Value emerges as negatives are priced in; maintain OW

Goldwind is China's largest wind turbine generator (WTG) manufacturer, which maintained a domestic market share of ~20% over 2020-25. The company also owns a sizable wind farm portfolio, with attributable installed capacity approaching 8GW by end-2025, providing recurring earnings alongside its turbine manufacturing business. China's wind sector has corrected sharply on weak earnings and slowing onshore demand growth, prompting us to revise our onshore installation outlook and expect a more moderate growth trajectory through FY30. However, we remain positive on offshore wind and export-related opportunities, supported by stronger policy backing, a recovering project pipeline, and rising global competitiveness of Chinese suppliers. Goldwind-H has corrected by roughly 50% since 1Q26-end, underperforming the HSCEI, which has declined by ~3%, which we attribute primarily to weaker-than-expected 2H26 management guidance implying a HoH margin decline, and a decline in China's onshore wind tu