Data Center Pipeline Probabilities: Gigawatts versus Bragawatts - what's really getting built (Oct '26)

We published our first version of this analysis on June data, attempting to pull apart the ~600GW of U.S. data center pipeline and estimate what was likely to be built, updated it for August, and are now refreshing for October. The landscape is evolving rapidly in some ways, but it takes 2-3 years to build a data center and plans are not changed on a whim. Our full pipeline dataset casts a deliberately wide net across the North American market: operating facilities, canceled projects, land banks, announcements, and projects already under construction. For this credibility analysis, we probability-weight the remaining projects, giving no full credit for press releases and PowerPoints. Each build is scored on stage of development, tenant quality, developer credibility, and state-level regulatory risk; construction progress carries the most weight, while pre-leasing to an IG hyperscaler, demonstrated ability to secure power and capital, and a track record of delivering capacity all improv