ASUR Airports (ASURB.MX): 4% miss to consensus EBITDA, eyes on 4Q26 traffic and Motiva's portfolio guidance

Citi's 3Q26 flash on ASUR Airports (ASURB.MX): EBITDA came in at P$4,719m (+1.7% YoY, +2.8% QoQ), 2.0% below Citi's P$4,814m estimate and 3.9% below the P$4,912m consensus, driven by softer-than-expected performance in Mexico and Motiva's portfolio, partly offset by stronger Colombia and Puerto Rico contributions. Consolidated revenue was P$10,420.5m (+18.9% YoY), reflecting the first full quarter of consolidation of the U.S. commercial operations and one month of CPC Aeroportos; excluding construction services, revenue rose 12.6% YoY to P$7,829.4m. Adjusted EBITDA margin (ex-construction, ex-IFRIC 12) fell to 60.3% from 66.7% a year earlier, a 645bp compression. Net majority income of P$2,158.8m was 14% below Citi's P$2,523m estimate and 7% below the P$2,326m consensus. Net debt closed at P$49,878m, 4% below Citi's forecast, with net debt-to-LTM EBITDA rising to 2.6x from 0.2x a year earlier and 0.8x at year-end 2025, reflecting the Motiva transaction. By region, Mexico EBITDA of P$3,