宁德时代 (300750.SZ): Looking through the two market debates around demand and competition

CATL's share prices have pulled back by 36% (for both A- and H-shares) from their May peaks (vs. CSI300/HSCEI: -9%/-3%). We attribute the weakness to two market debates: renewed concerns over "de-CATLization" in EV batteries and the durability of domestic ESS demand. In this note, we assess the first by revisiting past OEM diversification efforts and examining CATL's customer mix, wallet-share trends and consumer recognition. For ESS, we reconcile robust tendering and contracting with delayed installations and evaluate the policy levers available to support deployment in a still-early-cycle domestic market. We also highlight potential clearing events—including shifts in OEM sourcing strategies, the market-share performance of models using alternative battery suppliers, a seasonal ESS installation pick-up and further provincial policy rollouts—that could provide greater clarity on both debates. At 12x NTM P/E for the A-share, with a c.4% dividend yield, CATL trades close to the trough r