高盛发布中国经济展望报告。增长方面，预计2026年实际GDP增长4.5%，处于政府4.5%-5.0%目标区间下限；房地产市场尚未见底，但对GDP的拖累将减弱；居民消费或维持疲弱，政府消费增长加快可部分对冲。预计2026年经常账户盈余占GDP的3.5%，并在2027、2028年继续上升。通胀方面，再通胀由成本推动（能源价格上涨）与政府"反内卷"控价行动驱动，PPI从2025年的-2.6%回升至2026年的+2.0%，CPI从0%升至1.0%。政策方面，预计政策利率维持不变，未来12个月USDCNY升至6.40（2026年底6.70）；鉴于今年宽松延后，2026年广义财政赤字率11.5%的预测存在下行风险，预计四季度宏观政策在二三季度收紧后恢复温和宽松。出口方面，AI相关产品推动近期名义出口走强，但主要通过价格而非数量实现，真实出口增长仍集中于高技术制造产品。"
GS China Economic Outlook. On growth, we expect real GDP to grow 4.5% in 2026, at the lower bound of the government's 4.5-5.0% target range. The property market has not bottomed, but the drag to GDP growth should lessen. Although household consumption may stay weak in 2026, we expect government consumption growth to increase to offset such weakness. Our forecast for the 2026 current account surplus is 3.5% of GDP, and we expect it to continue to rise in 2027 and 2028. On inflation, China's reflation process will be driven by cost-push inflation (higher energy prices) and the government's "anti-involution" efforts to curb excessive price-cutting, lifting PPI inflation from -2.6% in 2025 to +2.0% in 2026, with headline CPI rising from 0% to 1.0%. On policy, we expect the policy rate to remain unchanged and USDCNY to reach 6.40 in 12 months (6.70 by end-2026). We see a downside risk to our 2026 augmented fiscal deficit forecast of 11.5% of GDP given delayed easing this year, and expect ma