全球债券收益率已升至数十年高位，但经济增长与市场迄今仍保持显著韧性。然而随着一些压力开始显现（如欧洲主权债券市场），这种韧性能否持续，还是会暴露更多脆弱性？本报告访谈了IMF的Tobias Adrian、穆迪分析的Mark Zandi及高盛经济学家。Adrian对经济韧性相对乐观，但提示下行风险；高盛经济学家预计利率上升仅带来温和增长拖累（2027年约0.2个百分点），但若收益率维持在当前或更高水平，拖累或升至0.5个百分点。Zandi则更担忧，认为美国经济"脆弱"而非"有韧性"，经济脱轨概率约三分之一。高盛策略师与分析师对银行及整体市场并不过分担忧，但警告若收益率进一步上升或利率波动加剧，风险资产或将承压。关键看点在于日益相互关联且高杠杆的AI投资热潮能否继续承受更高利率。
Global bond yields have risen to multi-decade highs, yet growth and markets have remained remarkably resilient. But with some pressures beginning to emerge (e.g. in European sovereign bond markets), can this resilience last, or will more vulnerabilities be revealed? We ask the IMF's Tobias Adrian, Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi, and GS economists. Adrian is relatively sanguine about the economy's resilience, though notes downside risks, while GS economists expect only a modest growth drag from higher rates, but a more consequential one if yields remain near current or higher levels. Zandi is generally more concerned, describing the US economy as vulnerable rather than resilient, and sees one-in-three odds of the economy going off the rails. Meanwhile, GS strategists and analysts are not especially concerned about banks or markets more broadly, but warn that further increases in yields or rate volatility could test risk assets. Key to watch: whether the increasingly interconnected and le