摩根大通发布人民币外汇策略报告，指出中国央行罕见地以中英双语评论形式加入关于人民币估值的讨论，阐述其对人民币汇率框架的看法，并反驳人民币被低估的主流叙事。报告基本认同央行观点：一是实际有效汇率（REER）不足以衡量人民币估值，2022年以来人民币名义有效汇率（NEER）升值逾7%，而REER下跌15%–20%主要反映中国相对全球的低通胀而非货币错配；二是贸易竞争力与经常账户顺差并不等同于货币低估，中国在AI与新能源等领域的成本与产业链优势支撑了出口韧性；三是全球失衡更多反映各国内部失衡，人民币并非首要原因，但中国自身再平衡力度仍不足。汇率层面，央行中间价持续偏强，USD/CNH与全球汇率联动减弱，人民币贸易加权指数升至2022年以来高位但尚不显过度；
PBoC has formally entered the debate on CNY valuation, publishing a rare bilingual commentary outlining its framework on the RMB exchange rate and pushing back against the prevailing narrative around CNY undervaluation. J.P. Morgan broadly agrees with most of its arguments but holds some reservations. On the exchange rate regime, while market forces now play a much larger role than in the past, the currency market remains tightly managed, with China's capital account still largely closed and authorities influencing the exchange rate through various policy tools. On valuation frameworks, REER alone provides an incomplete measure: since 2022 the CNY NEER has appreciated by more than 7% while the REER has fallen roughly 15-20%, implying that much of the REER decline reflects China's weak inflation relative to the rest of the world rather than currency misalignment. Trade competitiveness and the current account surplus do not equal an undervalued currency — China's external surplus increas