First Take: weak 9M26 print can emerge as a clearing event; overseas backlog a silver lining

J.P. Morgan's First Take on Goldwind-H (2208.HK) maintains an Overweight rating with a HK$12.00 price target. 9M26 net profit came in at Rmb2.88bn, up 11% YoY, while external WTG sales volume rose only 3% YoY to 19.0GW, slowing from 16% YoY growth in 1H26 due to sluggish domestic onshore wind demand and overseas shipment delays from logistics disruptions. 9M26 shipments reached only ~59% of the FY26 target versus a three-year (2023-25) average of ~65%, implying downside risk to the full-year target. The silver lining is continued overseas backlog growth, rising from 9.5GW at end-1H26 to 11.0GW at end-9M26, with total orders on hand up 8.6% YoY to 57.0GW. Blended GPM improved 1.5ppts YoY in 3Q26 on better WTG profitability, and domestic public tender volume rebounded ~32% YoY to 39.7GW in 3Q26 though 9M26 tenders were still down 10% YoY at 91.5GW, with bidding prices moderating to Rmb1,560/kW in September 2026. Goldwind-H has underperformed the HSCEI by ~30% since early July, and the we