Telecom, Cable & Satellite: Petti's Playbook - Addressing Key Questions and Company Debates Ahead of 3Q26 Earnings

Ahead of the 3Q26 earnings season, this J.P. Morgan North America telecom services, cable and satellite note addresses key industry questions and debates and updates company-level fact sheets. The four debates are: the implications of SpaceX's Grain spectrum deal for wireless; the positive read-through for other spectrum sellers; whether SpaceX will drive higher spending in the 2027 Upper C-Band auction; and whether wireless promotional behavior stays rational through the holidays. JPM sees limited near-term fundamental impact from SpaceX's deal but expects sentiment pressure on the Big-3 and greater competitive tension in future auctions, raising its 160 MHz auction spend estimate from a $40b base case toward a $53b upside case (Verizon $15-20b, T-Mobile $10-15b, AT&T $5-10b, SpaceX up to $10b). Measured iPhone Duo pre-order subsidies point to continued promotional discipline and a 4Q26 margin tailwind. AT&T and Quebecor are the favorite Overweight names, with Underweight-rated TELUS