Global Hotels: The price of success - a 2026 RevPAR index

Bernstein updates its prior hotel brand pricing-power analysis (2021, 2022, 2024), identifying more than 7,000 hotels that compete head to head with a hotel from a similar brand in the same US zip code, and extracting forward pricing to build a relative ADR index and, after layering in brand occupancy, a relative RevPAR index. Marriott brands price at the highest level, with an ADR index of 103 (about 3% above the market average), while Hilton, Hyatt and IHG sit close together at 99.5, 99.1 and 98.1 respectively. Once occupancy is layered in, Marriott still leads with a RevPAR index of 101.6, followed closely by Hilton at 101.2 and Hyatt at 100.7, while IHG is the clear laggard at 96.6, largely due to long-standing troubled brands Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza. Marriott has improved steadily since 2021 and takes the top spot for the first time, while IHG has weakened in each iteration. RevPAR performance correlates with development pipeline: US pipeline/supply is 21% for Marriott, 18.9%