Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company: Continue to see LFL 26E +7.3%, shifting focus to 27E volume and costs outlook

We update our model following Q326 results, leaving FY26E/27E EPS broadly unchanged. We continue to see FY26 organic sales +7.3% (in-line with guidance for slightly above the +6-7% range) and EBIT +9.8% (top end of guide for +8-10%). Overall, focus is turning to 2027, where management has guided to slightly higher COGS inflation compared with 2026 (which we see could be in the solid MSD, noting our recent cost tracker update). Management has noted that 6-7% LFL was a valid range for 2027 top line as well, though with a more balanced volume vs price/mix component than this year, whilst also sounding a note of confidence on cycling a strong year in Established Markets with continued volume growth. Overall, we model FY27 organic sales +6.8% on volumes +2.8% and p/mix +4.0%, and organic EBIT growth of +8.7%. We continue to model the business inclusive of CCBA, where we note good read-across on S. Africa growth from the recent results of The Coca Cola Company albeit we caveat the magnitude