德意志银行中国经济研究:9月制造业PMI回升0.3个百分点至50.1,重返荣枯线之上。据国家统计局数据,21个受调查制造业行业中12个处于扩张区间,高于8月的8个。9月景气走强,生产分项指数上升1.3个百分点至51.7,产成品库存下降0.8个百分点至47.6;但新订单微降0.1个百分点至50.5,新出口订单持平于50.0,预示未来数月需求可能放缓。价格连续第二个月大幅上涨,投入价格指数跃升4.2个百分点至60.8,出厂价格指数上升3.6个百分点至54.0,主要反映国际大宗商品涨价与需求走强,预计9月PPI通胀将进一步上行(8月环比涨0.4%、同比涨3.8%)。建筑业是9月最大正向意外,建筑业PMI跳升3.4个百分点至50.3,为今年首次进入扩张区间,可能表明政府主导的"六张网"基础设施投资终于加速。服务业PMI亦改善0.9个百分点至50.2,信息技术与金融服务持续扩张,房地产则进一步收缩。
China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.3ppt to 50.1 in September, returning above the 50 threshold. According to the NBS, 12 of the 21 manufacturing industries surveyed were above the expansion threshold, up from eight in August. Activity strengthened in September: the production subindex rose by 1.3ppt to 51.7, while finished-goods inventories fell by 0.8ppt to 47.6. Meanwhile, new orders slipped by 0.1ppt to 50.5, and new export orders were unchanged at 50.0, pointing to potentially slower demand in the coming months. Prices posted a second consecutive month of sharp gains. The input price index jumped by 4.2ppt to 60.8, while the output price index rose by 3.6ppt to 54.0. The increases likely reflected higher international commodity prices and firmer demand. PPI inflation will likely rise further in September, after increasing by 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY in August. Construction was September's largest positive surprise. Construction PMI jumped by 3.4ppt to 50.3, entering expansionary terr