高盛点评2026年8月美国零售销售数据。8月整体零售销售环比增长1.2%,高于高盛预期的0.6%和市场预期的0.8%;7月环比由-0.6%上修至-0.5%。同比看,8月零售销售增长6.0%(去年同期4.7%),高于7月的5.0%,两年叠加为10.7%(7月9.2%)。8月核心零售同比增长6.7%(去年5.3%),两年叠加增长12.1%。15个品类中有11个同比增速较上月加快,包括杂项、家居、加油站、消费电子、无店铺零售、健康与个人护理、运动用品、综合商品、汽车零部件、餐饮服务及机动车及零部件;两年叠加口径下15个品类中14个加速,仅DIY放缓,加油站改善最明显(8月+19.8%对比7月+15.1%)。
Headline retail sales were up +1.2% sequentially in August, above GS estimate of +0.6% and consensus (Reuters) expectations of +0.8%. This compares to -0.5% in July vs. -0.6% before restatement. On a y/y basis, retail sales grew +6.0% in Aug'26 vs. +4.7% in Aug'25, above +5.0% in Jul'26; the 2-year stack was +10.7% in August compared to +9.2% in July. Core retail sales in Aug'26 increased by +6.7% y/y, vs. +5.3% in Aug'25, above +5.5% in Jul'26; on a 2-year stacked basis, sales growth was +12.1% in August, compared to +10.4% in July. Of the 15 categories, 11 categories accelerated on a y/y basis compared to last month including miscellaneous, home furnishings, gas stations, consumer electronics, non store, health and personal, sporting goods, general merchandise, auto parts, food services, and motor vehicle and parts. On a two-year stack, 14 of the 15 categories accelerated on a y/y basis compared to last month, with DIY being the only category that saw deceleration. Auto parts y/y sal