China monthly data outlook: Firmer policy support, slower momentum

China enters November with a firmer policy floor but softer momentum after September's production and export rebound. Measures since September 28, including fiscal financing, targeted credit, selective housing relief and capital-market support, have bolstered growth and sentiment but have yet to revive broad demand. J.P. Morgan raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.6% and expects 5.3% q/q saar in both 4Q26 and 1Q27, driven by fiscal catch-up and the global technology cycle rather than household consumption. October PMIs suggest payback from September's pre-holiday production and shipment push: NBS manufacturing returned to contraction while RatingDog stayed expansionary on investment goods, a divergence pointing to normalization rather than a technology-cycle reversal. Domestic demand offers little offset, as weak auto sales, lower per-capita holiday spending and slower services expansion signal household caution. October CPI is forecast at 0.7% oya and flat sequentially, while PPI shou