野村指出，台湾与韩国的巨额外资持股是汇率脆弱性的核心来源。截至10月底，韩国境外股权持有市值约1.43万亿美元，约为外汇储备的3.4倍；台湾约2.3万亿美元，约3.8倍；印度与印尼分别为6210亿和1510亿美元。另一风险是企业部门囤积美元：出口商减少结汇、进口商提前购汇，将明显压缩区域美元供给。模拟显示，如果出现类似2022年5月至2023年底中国的囤汇行为，韩国与台湾基本收支盈余的实际净流入可能降至报告值约30%（韩国调整后87亿美元，报告值288亿美元）。撤资情景分两档：极端情景下台湾、韩国净流出相当于外储的13.5%和7.8%；温和情景下台湾6.3%、印尼4.7%、韩国2%。策略维持做多新加坡元/印尼卢比、欧元/印度卢比，做空美元兑菲律宾比索和离岸人民币，并新增战术性做多欧元/韩元，目标1580（约4%），期限两个月。
Large foreign equity holdings in Taiwan and Korea represent vulnerabilities to both currencies. Corporate sector hoarding is a risk that can drastically reduce the FX remittance/USD supply in the region. We run simulations on the corporate sector USD hoarding under scenarios of equity outflows based on the GFC and Taper Tantrum. TWD and KRW look to be most at risk from an equity selloff, with elevated risks also present for IDR and INR. We implement a tactical long EUR/KRW position targeting 1580 (~4%) over the next two months. In our view, KRW and TWD are the most vulnerable currencies to a further weakening in the tech/AI theme. For Korea, the value of foreign equity holdings was USD1.43trn at the end of October (~3.4 times FX reserves), with Taiwan at USD2.3trn or ~3.8 times FX reserves; the value of foreign equity holdings for India and Indonesia stood at USD621bn and USD151bn, respectively. Our simulation assuming USD hoarding shows that net inflows from Taiwan and Korea's basic b