Rio Tinto plc (RIO.L): Q3'26 wrap: 2026 guidance unchanged, cost pressures flagged, but minimal changes to earnings. Stay Neutral with iron ore at ~$90/t

We update our forecasts to reflect RIO's Q3 production. Q3 Iron Ore shipments of 85.7Mt (340Mtpa) were -3% vs JPMe while Pilbara production of 83.4Mt (331Mtpa) was -6% vs JPMe as RIO destocked inventory. Copper was in-line, as we had already factored in weather impacts at Escondida. Group 2026 guidance is unchanged, with lithium pointing to the lower end of the range and a big Q4 required for aluminium and alumina. RIO has flagged a ~$2/t Pilbara cost headwind from diesel and FX (~$650m annualized), and we expect the broader sector to face the same pressure. Factoring in Q3 results, we revise our 2026E/27E EBITDA by -1%/-2%;