好未来（TAL.N）：预提税暗示更大规模派现；利润率依赖于销售费用削减——维持中性

Citi maintains Neutral on TAL Education (TAL.N) with a target price of US$11.54 versus the US$9.87 price, implying 16.9% expected total return, and adds a 30-day upside Short-Term View. 2QFY27 revenue rose 15.5% yoy (9% in RMB) to US$994.6mn, 7.6% below pre-results consensus as learning devices shrank. Non-GAAP operating profit of US$247.7mn beat consensus by 21%, lifting non-GAAP OPM to 24.9% from 12.5%, driven mainly by non-GAAP S&M falling 15.6% yoy to 22.4% of revenue; gross margin rose 2.8pp to 59.8% on higher utilization at Peiyou offline centres. Attributable net profit swung to a US$47.4mn loss on US$189.7mn of investment losses and a US$135.9mn tax charge, of which about US$120mn was withholding tax on PRC profits to be moved offshore, implying US$1.2-2.4bn (22-44% of market cap) to be remitted and pointing to much larger payouts ahead;