摩根士丹利发布IT硬件行业报告，聚焦北美企业硬件支出现状。报告指出企业硬件支出异常强劲：最近一季传统服务器收入同比增长87%，存储增速由一季度的23%加快至34%，PC收入增长14%，均为剔除疫情后十余年最高增速。但市场已开始看穿短期强势，覆盖的8只企业OEM/分销股中6只估值已低于财报前水平，尽管下一财年每股收益预期平均上调约12%，市盈率平均压缩约1倍。报告判断本轮强劲主要来自周期性换机与大型企业提前采购，多数AI负载仍在云端。最看好的企业硬件增持标的为P与SNX，其次为HPE，HPQ为首选减持。P在存储市场份额提升最快，估值低于历史均值约20%；SNX分销收入增速约为同业两倍，Hyve业务高速增长且估值更具吸引力。HPQ个人系统营业利润率同比收缩约110个基点至4.6%，目标价19美元，隐含逾40%下行空间。
Follow off-cycle enterprise OEM earnings, and ahead of C3Q earnings ramping, we highlight 5 key trends/observations that emerged this earnings season, identify our most favored OW/UW's in the space (P/SNX/HPE vs. HPQ), and preview 10 important upcoming catalysts. Enterprise hardware spending is undeniably strong; the more important question remains where are there cyclical vs. secular tailwinds, how long does this strength persist, and who benefits? Storage growth is accelerating and appears earliest in the upcycle, Server growth remains exceptionally strong but is further along in the cycle, and PC units are quickly deteriorating, keeping us focused on where there is duration in spending, not simply where growth is strongest today. In aggregate, 2Q enterprise hardware spending growth was exceptionally strong, with OEM Traditional Server revenue growing 87% Y/Y, Storage growth accelerating to +34% Y/Y (from +23% Y/Y in C1Q), and PC revenue growing 14% Y/Y. Beat-and-raise is no longer e