Empresas Copec S.A. (COPEC.SN): 3Q26 Earnings: Arauco Above Expectations; Fuels Normalize; Capex Remains the Focus

Mixed operating results, with Arauco above consensus but fuels earnings weaker than expected. Adjusted EBITDA reached US$889mn, 8% above Bloomberg consensus. Improving leverage and Sucuriú's construction progress were positives, while elevated investment continues to constrain cash generation. Arauco: EBITDA of US$311mn was 9% above consensus; pulp and panel prices increased 2.0% and 3.5% QoQ, offsetting volume weakness. Fuels: Copec, including Terpel, generated EBITDA of US$371mn, 27% below segment consensus and down 26% QoQ, though still 41% above last year; Abastible offset with EBITDA of US$90mn. Net debt/adjusted EBITDA declined to 2.95x from 3.13x, while quarterly capex reached US$1.01bn. Sucuriú reached 81.1% completion, ahead of schedule, with ramp-up to start in 4Q27.