9月美国进口价格再度走高,整体环比上涨1.1%(同比8.1%),更值得关注的是非燃料进口价格环比上涨0.7%,在近期消费品通胀本就偏快的背景下,成为商品价格上行压力的又一来源。计算机进口价格继续大幅上涨2.4%,剔除燃料和计算机后仍上涨0.4%,对该类别而言依然偏热。同比看,非燃料进口价格上涨6.0%,为有记录以来较大涨幅之一,剔除计算机后上涨3.9%。9月非燃料价格的其他主要推动项包括非燃料工业用品(环比1.4%)、汽车(0.3%)以及除汽车外的消费品(0.4%),消费品中服装、家居用品和珠宝涨幅明显。经季节调整后,计入核心PCE的进口航空客运票价基本持平,使9月核心PCE环比预估由0.31%小幅下调至0.30%,同比仍为3.1%。未来数月美元走势偏平,或在一定程度上缓和进口通胀,但今年美元与进口价格的联动因科技需求激增、石化价格波动及关税调整而有所减弱。
September import prices were hot again, with total import prices rising 1.1%m/m (8.1%oya), but more importantly non-fuel prices increasing 0.7%. This is another source of upward pressure on goods prices during a period when recent consumer goods inflation has been brisk. Computer prices continue to rip higher, rising another 2.4%m/m, while import prices ex fuels and computers rose 0.4%, which is still quite warm for that category. On a 12-month basis, nonfuel import prices have risen 6.0%oya, one of the larger changes on record, and nonfuel ex computers rose 3.9%. Other major sources of upward pressure for non-fuel prices in September included non-fuel industrial supplies (1.4%m/m), autos (0.3%), and consumer goods ex autos (0.4%). Our seasonally adjusted estimate of import air passenger fares, which go into core PCE, was essentially flat, which lowers our September core PCE estimate from 0.31%m/m to 0.30%, with the over-year-ago rate still at 3.1%. One force that could moderate import