Copper, Silver, PGMs: Tariff Uncertainty Likely to Persist; Tariff Risk Builds Inventories

We continue to expect uncertainty around critical minerals tariffs to persist, as the ambiguity itself may be serving the policy objective of supply security through domestic stockbuilding. We therefore expect much of the metal already in the US to remain trapped, while periodic increases in tariff risk could encourage further stockbuilding. Implementing tariffs is unlikely to create new critical mineral supply because mines and smelters take far longer to build than tariffs take to change. But the risk of tariffs still achieves a national-security objective by pulling metal inventories into the US without requiring large-scale government purchases or immediately raising costs for downstream consumers. The result is lower liquidity outside the US, even if global inventories remain comfortable on paper. The tightening in available ex-US inventories came as investor interest broadened beyond gold into silver, platinum, palladium, and even copper. In a less liquid market, the same investo