dbMetals金属全流量报告：黄金为何呈现风险资产交易特征？

Why is gold trading like a risk asset? Price action in gold has confused market participants over the last few years. Gold's relationship to real yields has (sometimes) broken down. Gold's correlation to equities has (sometimes) turned positive. Gold's credentials as a safe-haven asset have been questioned following the steep sell-off since the war in Iran. Statistical anomalies in gold correlations over the last half-century point to a similar experience in gold markets in eight separate occurrences. One common thread that links them all: the changing value of money. Four independent but related narratives have attempted to explain this phenomenon. In our view, dedollarization has likely not played a substantial role in gold flows since at least 2024, and the prevalence of debasement narratives does not appear to be statistically linked to gold flows either. We argue the evidence overwhelmingly suggests that diversification is the main anchor for gold, through (1) reserve diversificat