North American Metals & Mining: Q3'26 preview: steel/copper prices strong, gold price weak, while focus shifts to 2027

BofA Securities previews the North American Metals & Mining sector's Q3'26 results, with Commercial Metals and Alcoa reporting first, followed by Cleveland-Cliffs, Steel Dynamics, Reliance and Newmont. US hot-rolled coil prices are up 37% YTD and copper 17%, while gold is down 5%; demand has surprised to the upside, and steel, copper and gold producers continue to generate solid free cash flow. Capital allocation and preliminary 2027 outlooks—including cost inflation, capex and production—should be key focuses. By subsector, aluminum prices are down 2% YTD; copper supply disruptions support prices, with the Grasberg recovery, QB2 ramp-up, Kamoa-Kakula turnaround and potential US copper tariffs in focus; uranium is expected to rise in H2'26E and 2027E; rare earths need a clearer catalyst path, with MP Materials offering unique exposure;